Droughts Complicated by Climate Change Cause Historic Low in US Beef Herd
The US beef cattle industry is facing a crisis as droughts, complicated by climate change, have made finding good pastureland for beef cattle to graze increasingly difficult. This has led to a decline in the size of the overall US beef cattle herd, which has continued since 1975. At the beginning of 2024, the nation’s inventory of beef cattle hit a 61-year low, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture.
In the nation’s top 10 beef-producing states, half reported the lowest number of cattle since 1995 as of the beginning of this year. Droughts starting in 2020 are a contributing factor in the nation’s historically low beef inventory, according to USDA research. Nebraska and Missouri — two of the top 10 beef-producing states — experienced the largest decline in the quality of June pastureland since 2020 compared to the other top states. Finding land with plentiful grazing for cattle is difficult in drought years. An analysis of USDA pastureland data shows that grazable Nebraska pastureland shrunk by a third since 2019 during the month of June.
Key Takeaways
- Droughts, complicated by climate change, have made finding good pastureland for beef cattle to graze increasingly difficult, leading to a decline in the size of the overall US beef cattle herd.
- The US beef cattle industry is facing a crisis as the nation’s inventory of beef cattle hit a 61-year low.
- Nebraska and Missouri experienced the largest decline in the quality of June pastureland since 2020 compared to the other top states.
Dealing with Drought
Droughts can have a significant impact on agricultural production, and the effects can vary depending on the location.
In the Midwest, according to Good Men Project, where much of the agricultural production relies on rain and groundwater, droughts have become more complicated due to climate change.
Dennis Todey, climatologist and director of the USDA’s Midwest Climate Hub, explains that climate change has caused significant rainfall and floods in recent years, followed by months of no precipitation, causing drought.
The Midwest has seen a significant increase in weather whiplash, which is the result of climate change. This phenomenon is characterized by severely wet years followed by intense dry seasons, making it difficult for livestock producers to cope. The top beef cattle-producing states have seen varying degrees of drought conditions during the last few years.
For example, in early June 2021, 30% of Nebraska was in various levels of drought, which affected many ranchers who require a good supply of pastureland for grazing. In the next year, almost the entire state was in a drought during early June, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Similarly, none of Missouri was in drought during early June 2022, but during that same period in 2023, 86% of the state was in drought.
When droughts persist year over year, livestock production can take a major hit. Grasslands don’t have time to recover to sustainable levels, and ranchers are left with tough choices. In some cases, ranchers transport water or alternative feed like corn to cattle, which increases production costs. Sometimes, the more financially sound decision is to cull animals instead.
According to Todey, drought affects agriculture differently across the country. In the Midwest, much of the agricultural production is fed by rain and groundwater. Climate change has complicated the region’s drought realities, and it has become increasingly difficult to rely on typical weather patterns and grazing conditions.
To cope with drought, ranchers can implement several strategies, such as:
- Rotational grazing: This involves moving the cattle from one pasture to another to allow the grass to recover.
- Water management: This includes capturing and storing rainwater or drilling wells to access groundwater.
Drought-tolerant crops: Ranchers can plant crops that are more resistant to drought conditions.
It is essential to implement these strategies to prepare for the effects of climate change on agriculture. Ranchers must also be prepared to adapt to changing weather patterns and adopt new technologies to mitigate the impact of drought on livestock production.
When the Grass Doesn’t Grow
In recent years, droughts have led to poor crop conditions in Nebraska and Missouri, resulting in a lack of feed for livestock during the month of June. USDA data shows that in 2023, more than a third of all Nebraska pastureland was in poor condition throughout the month of June, which is the highest level for the state in 10 years. In Missouri during the same time period, half of the state’s pastureland was at least in poor condition, which was the highest percentage seen in June in nearly 30 years. As a result, producers had to feed livestock supplemental food, leading to increased costs.
Eric Bailey, an assistant professor and state beef nutrition specialist at the University of Missouri, stated that in a normal year, a rancher will lose around 20% of their herd due to various reasons such as aging cattle, health issues, pregnancy failures, or natural death. However, when drought conditions are worse than normal, producers kill off more animals due to increased costs for alternative feed and transporting water, leading to greater decreases in the herd’s original size. According to a February USDA report, the rate of beef cattle culled on farms was the second and third highest for the years of 2022 and 2023, respectively, since 2011.
Bailey also mentioned that cattle ranchers should be expanding their herds, but due to the drought, they are reluctant to keep heifers on the farm. The past few years of drought have resulted in a pent-up demand to expand cattle herd sizes, but the lack of growing conditions that people feel good about has made it difficult.
In addition to the challenges faced by cattle ranchers, the droughts have also resulted in a historically low US beef herd. Droughts starting in 2020 are a contributing factor, according to USDA research. Nebraska and Missouri, two of the top 10 beef-producing states, experienced the largest decline in the quality of June pastureland since 2020 compared to the other top states. This has led to a decrease in the size of the US cattle herd since 1975, and it recently hit a historic low. Climate change has complicated the drought conditions, with ranchers experiencing periods of intense rainfall followed by months of no rain.
In conclusion, the drought conditions in Nebraska and Missouri have resulted in poor crop conditions, increased costs for producers, and a historically low US beef herd. While there is a pent-up demand to expand cattle herd sizes, the lack of growing conditions that people feel good about has made it difficult for cattle ranchers to do so. The effects of climate change have further complicated the situation, making it imperative for stakeholders to find sustainable solutions to ensure the future of the US beef industry.
An easing drought?
Nebraska ranchers recover from previous drought years
Snow storms in the Midwest at the beginning of 2024 are expected to bring relief from the recent run of drought years. As the snow melts, water will be restored to rivers, streams and groundwater systems in desperate need of replenishment.
Despite forecasts of reduced drought levels for 2024, ranchers will continue to recover from previous drought years.
Nebraska rancher Mackenzie Johnston runs a 450-head cattle ranch with her family in the Sandhills region of central Nebraska.
Last year was the first time she had to truck in hay from more than 500 miles away in Des Moines, Iowa, because of the substandard quality of grasses near her. She said this additional cost would have been too steep if not for the Livestock Forage Disaster Program, a federal initiative that provides financial help to agriculture producers during droughts.
During other drought years, Johnston said she would typically buy hay from South Dakota if Nebraska grass was in too poor condition.
Johnston said 2022 was “so darn dry” and the ranch’s hay production was minimal. When the operation had levels of grass too low for grazing, cattle became more expensive to raise. She said any cow that gave birth to sick calves or had an overall lower reproductive rate was sent to slaughter — or in her words, “went to town.”
Johnston said their operation has survived through the years because they focus on being conservative with the hay they feed their cattle. If there’s any grass on the ground, her cattle aren’t being “pampered” and are wrangled to graze outside, rain or shine.
Nebraska meteorologists expect this year to have more precipitation compared to last year. However, climate experts in the state warned state officials in 2023 that there needs to be better drought preparedness in the coming years to prevent future impacts to agriculture.
At the end of January, Johnston said there was nearly a foot of snow on the ground, followed soon after by acres of melt and muck.
“We have mud up to our knees, so even thinking about it being dry is just crazy,” she said.
USDA pastureland data analysis
Investigate Midwest analyzed 27 years of USDA pastureland data for the nation’s top 10 beef producing states to understand how pastureland conditions have changed over time. In conversations with ranchers, the month of June was cited as a good measure of when adequate pastureland for grazing is necessary.
By averaging June poor and very poor pastureland conditions as defined by the USDA separately, Investigate Midwest then summed these conditions to provide a snapshot of June substandard grazing conditions for the past 27 years.
