Higher UK Wheat Imports Predicted in 2023/2024
According to the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), the UK is predicted to import around 2.00Mt of wheat in 2023/2024.
The import pace has remained firm so far this season due to the poor quality of the 2023 harvest and concerns about the 2024 harvest. As a result, AHDB has increased its forecast of total season imports from 1.75Mt to 2.00Mt.
This level of wheat imports would be the highest since 2020/2021. It reflects the challenges faced by UK farmers and their ability to meet the demand for wheat and animal feed. The increase in imports is expected to have an impact on the UK’s crop development and overall agricultural industry.
Key Takeaways
- UK wheat imports are predicted to reach 2.00Mt in 2023/2024, the highest level since 2020/2021.
- The increase in wheat imports is due to the poor quality of the 2023 harvest and concerns about the 2024 harvest.
- The rise in wheat imports is expected to have an impact on crop development and the overall agricultural industry in the UK.
Wheat and Animal Feed
The total demand forecast for wheat is slightly higher than in January, up 33Kt to 14.86Mt, now 287Kt higher than last season. However, there is a slight dip in expected human and industrial (H&I) usage, down 36Kt from what was predicted in January, which is offset by increased animal feed demand.
The reduction in H&I usage is linked to lower-than-forecast data in recent months for brewing, malting, and distilling, plus the fall in ethanol prices over winter. The increasing competitiveness of maize for some uses is also a factor in this context.
Animal feed is supported by slightly more on-farm feeding of barley and wheat, expected due to the falls in grain prices, including some recovery in demand by integrated poultry units and for compound cattle feed.
According to AHDB analysts, the forecast rise in imports more than offsets the small uptick in demand, meaning end of season stocks are pegged 247Kt higher than in January at just less than 2.80Mt. Larger stocks look likely to be needed though, with sharply lower crop areas for harvest 2024 and crop conditions looking poor.
In summary, the demand for wheat is slightly higher than January, with a dip in H&I usage offset by increased animal feed demand. Animal feed is supported by slightly more on-farm feeding of barley and wheat, expected due to the falls in grain prices.
The forecast rise in imports more than offsets the small uptick in demand, meaning end of season stocks are pegged 247Kt higher than in January at just less than 2.80Mt.
Crop Development
AHDB’s first crop development report of 2024 reveals that all winter crops are in poor condition due to high rainfall levels over winter. The East Midlands and neighbouring regions of the West Midlands, East, and Yorkshire and the Humber have been hit the hardest.
As of late March, just 34% of GB winter wheat is rated in good or excellent condition, a sharp drop from last year’s 90%. These poor crop conditions have resulted in higher wheat imports for the 2023/2024 season, which are predicted to reach 2.00Mt.
The import pace has remained firm so far this season due to both the poor quality of the 2023 harvest and worries about the 2024 harvest.
